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200717-12-2007OECD: Climate change triples coastal flood risk by 2070 The impact of climate change and urban development could more than triple the number of people around the world exposed to coastal flooding by 2070, according to a new report (December 2007) by the OECD, co-authored by experts from academia and the private sector, The report 'Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes' finds that around 150 million people could be exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 40 million today. The estimated financial impact of such an event would also rise to USD 35 trillion by 2070, up from USD 400 billion today. The study analyses the exposure of people and property and infrastructure to a 1-in-100 year flood event in over 130 key port cities worldwide. A 1-in-100 year flood event is a commonly accepted risk assessment standard. The study aims to help policy makers determine where to focus adaptation strategies to climate extremes and to understand the potential benefits of mitigation policy. It is the first in a series of OECD reports looking at the economic impact of climate change on cities. In its estimate of the impact of climate change, the study assumes mean sea level rise of 0.5 meters by 2070. This estimate includes the contributions from melting ice sheets that have proved important over recent decades and is consistent with a medium to high risk scenario. Mitigation strategies will slow and limit the exacerbating effects of climate change on coastal flood risk, the report notes. Downloads: Press release (2007)  Full report (2007) Source: OECD  02-12-2007 The IPCC 4th Assessment Report On November 17, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released the synthesis report of the 4th Assessment Report (AR4), making the full report complete. The report AR4 is the follow up of the well-known Third Assessment Report (TAR) that was released in 2001. Earlier this year, sub reports were released from three IPCC working groups dealing with 1) the scientific basis of climate change; 2) impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change; and 3) mitigation of climate change. The synthesis report does not show new research results, but new insights have emerged regarding the combination of results from IPCC's seperate working groups. The attention for climate adaptation seems to have increased in the reports. The full report and other reports from the respective IPCC working groups may be found at the website of IPCC (www.ipcc.ch) Project Safecoast and its affiliated coastal managers from the North Sea countries have a specific interest with respect to climate change and its implications on coastal flood and erosion management. To facilitate this perspective, the relevant chapters of IPCC working groups 1 and 2 may be directly downloaded below. See the first results of project Safecoast associated with climate change scenarios from a coastal management perspective here AR4 Synthesis Report: The synthesis report chapters may be downloaded here AR4 Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis": Ch5: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level:  Ch11: Regional Climate Projections: AR4 Working Group II Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability": Ch6: Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas: Ch19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change:  Source: www.ipcc.ch 30-11-2007 UN launches climate change website A new United Nations Internet site, "Gateway to the UN System's Work on Climate Change", that highlights the wide-ranging work of the various parts of the United Nations system on climate change was launched today. The new website makes it easier for Internet users to find information on climate change from across the United Nations system. The address of the new website is http://www.un.org/climatechange In addition to bringing Member States together to find common ground for addressing climate change at the international level, the United Nations works to assess the most up-to-date science on climate change, develop projects that assist people at the grass-roots level to adapt to the consequences of climate change and works to develop creative solutions that will reduce the emissions of the gases that cause climate change. The new climate change gateway provides easy access to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the latest developments on efforts to reach a new international climate change agreement, news, as well as information on future climate change events, projects in the field and climate change updates for youth. Information on the high-level event that will take place on 24 September can be found at http://www.un.org/climatechange/2007highlevel For more information, contact Dan Shepard, United Nations Department of Public Information, tel: 212 963 9495, email: mediainfo@un.org
15-11-2007 NL: Innovation platform pleads for experimental island in North Sea The Dutch government installed Innovation Platform, consisting of key players in politics, government and private parties, has called for further elaboration of the idea of constructing an offshore island. The Platform wants to exploit the huge attention that was recently given to the idea by Christian-Democrat parliament member Atsma. Under the leadership of Dutch PM Balkenende was decided that such an island would have an experimental character for both technical and procedural reasons. The Platform therefore speaks of an experiment-island and uses the shape of a tulip for reasons of promotion (see image below). A resolution accepted by the Dutch parliament requests the Government to investigate the possibility of a North Sea polder or island, will demand specific attention from the recently founded Deltacommission (named after the famous commission that led to the formation of the deltaplan and deltaworks).  Combined effort water sector and energy sector Within the Innovation Platform, professor Hulscher, water expert at the Twente University, and entrepreneur and former SME president, De Boer, will lead the investigation. According to Hulscher the shape of the process and co-operation play an important role: "The water and energy sectors desperately need space for experimentation. By means of an island or group or islands we will stimulate innovation that will lead to answers to issues like climate change, ecology and economy." Scepticism from water experts Atsma's idea for a polder in the North Sea has been received with a certain scepticism from civil and coastal engineers and professionals. They affirm the notion of 'seaward thinking', but see a polder in the North Sea as impracticable. With respect to the construction costs, water experts have given no opinion so far. During the debate in Parliament, Atsma spoke of a polder in the North Sea of about the size on one-and-a-half times the existing Noordoostpolder, claiming a revenue of property sale of €6 billion. "Revenues, however, depend on the use of the newly created land. A high-quality residential function increases the value, but would rely on costly protection measures", according to Royal Haskoning expert Zijlstra. "A new row of offshore dunes with nature in between that can work with the natural dynamics of the coastal zone, seem to bee much more feasible." "Densely populated deltas should think seaward" The thought of a new row of dunes has also been on the mind of engineer Waterman, who is involved in land reclamation efforts accros the globe. He thinks more in the direction of a series of islands, compared to the Wadden islands. Waterman roughly estimates the total area of the Wadden islands of 70,000 hectares. This already implies 17 billion cubic metres of needed sand. At a price of €3 per cubic metre of sand, a cost of at least €50 billion can be expected for the material only. "Technological this is a possibility", Waterman claims, "The dredging knowledge is available". Waterman is enthusiastic about the sudden interest for seaward land reclamation. "Climate change force densely populated deltas to think also in terms of seaward expansion". Connect island-row with Central Holland Consultant Dircke of Arcadis consultancy compares the idea of an island row with the American city Miami. "There, offshore islands are mutual connected, but are also separately connected with the mainland. This means that the island population can easily go for shopping on the mainland", according to Dircke. Dircke can imagine such a situation also in front of the Central Holland shore, with islands and lagoons in between occupied with villas and harbours, but cannot foresee the effects on the natural coastal morphology. "That remains to be researched", he said. Source: Waterforum 11-11-2007 North Sea countries withstand highest water levels since 1953 The storm surge in combination with high tide of late last thursday led - in some areas - to the highest water levels since 1953. A powerful storm prompted hundreds to evacuate in Britain, but left countries along the North Sea coast largely unscathed. Early Friday, waves up to 6 metres high rolled up against sea defences in Lowestoft, the most easterly point in Norfolk, Britain, about 200km northeast of London on the North Sea coast. But the peak of the predicted surge passed without causing any major damage. Britain closed the Thames River barrier, downstream from London, as a precaution. In France, wind gusts of up to 105 km/h whipped northern towns during overnight storms, blowing off rooftops and uprooting trees, according to regional emergency services. The storm did not hit Germany as hard as expected Thursday night. But the port of Hamburg was closed, and its main fish market and riverfront thoroughfare were under water. Also the island of Helgoland in the German bight of the North Sea was struck by the storm and caused a damage of several million euros. In Denmark, sand bags were used as a precautionary measure on the isle of Fyn. In the Netherlands, along the whole of the coast a dike watch was installed for the first time in 30 years. Rotterdam Port halted all ship traffic until Friday evening. The Eastern-Scheldt barrier was closed and the Maeslant Barrier protecting Europe’s largest port was closed for the first time under storm conditions since its construction in 1997. Parts of harbour areas such as Harlingen (see image below) and on the Dutch Wadden islands were flooded locally. Some dune restoration works are foreseen on the Wadden islands of Vlieland and Ameland Also Flanders some minor damages along its 70km shoreline were reported, and the Antwerp harbour was forced to close a flood defence wall to prevent overflow of sea water.  Waves pounding the sea wall at Walcott, UK, November 9 2007. Photo: John Giles / AP
 Flooded harbour shed in Harlingen, NL, November 9 2007. Photo: WFA
 high water levels in Germany, November 9 2007. Photo: AFP 02-11-2007 NL: "artificial reef lowers coastal storm impact" Rijkswaterstaat and consultant Royal Haskoning have concluded that an artificial reef, one-and-a-half kilometre offshore at Scheveningen will prevent acute coastal erosion by 15-20m during a super storm. The reef is constructed with a sandy core and is covered with concrete blocks. Aim is to prevent especially longer waves to reach the shoreline. Especially these waves with a longer wave period are a specific threat for the coast. These results come from a feasibility study that was done by both Rijkswaterstaat and Royal Haskoning.  The idea was launched 2 years ago. In the study 2 alternatives have been examined more intensively: a long stretched reef parallel to the coast and a reef consisting of three oblique strips parallel to eachother (see image above). Models have suggested that both alternatives will result in a significant reduction of hydraulic load in the surf of a super storm (see image below). The oblique alternative with 3 strips with a 30 degree angle with the shore has been chosen for specific protection from a Northwestern storm, the most threatening storm direction for the Dutch shore. A combination of high tide and a large wave setup is proven to be many times more dangerous than a Southwestern storm. The advantage is that waves may pass during a storm from the Southwest, forming no obstacle for northward longshore sand transport. The feasibility study has been finalised, but will be followed by a societal cost-benefit study of the measures. In 2008 the results are expected. Now that the physical concept has been proven, the reefs have to be compared with alternative measures, such as nourishments that have also been proven a succesful measure and formal policy since 1990. Also the oppertunities for underwater nature, leasure and shipping will be analysed. Sources: Waterforum, Rijkswaterstaat, Royal Haskoning  09-10-2007 UK: increase in flood management spending to 2011 Figures on how flood spending will increase between 2008 and 2011 were announced today by the UK Environment Secretary Hilary Benn. Mr Benn announced in July that spending on flood management would increase from €860 million (£600m) in 2006/7 to €1150 million (£800m) by 2010/11. Today he said annual budgets would rise to a minimum of €930 million (£650m) in 2008/09, and a minimum of €1005 million (£700m) in 2009/10, reaching €1150 million (£800m) by 2010/11. Hilary Benn said: “I made a commitment to Parliament to provide the breakdown of our increased flood budget as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review announcement. “The profile outlined today shows the minimum we will spend in each of the coming years. It is too early to determine whether this will be the final allocation, or whether it will be possible to go beyond these figures, but I won’t rule that out. I’m providing this outline now because it’s important that the different bodies with flood management roles, including insurers, local authorities and the Environment Agency, can start to plan with confidence. “I expect the independent lessons learned inquiry into this summer’s floods, chaired by Sir Michael Pitt, to report at the end of this year. The information that comes out of that review will be taken into account when we determine the final allocation.” Sir John Harman, Chairman of the Environment Agency, said “We welcome the increase in funding for flood risk management, as announced by the Government today in its Comprehensive Spending Review - it is moving in the right direction. “We will never be able to protect everyone against all floods but we can progress now with confidence to deliver more schemes to protect people and property, and plan future schemes over the next three years. “This welcome increase is an important step towards the long-term level of €1000 million (£1bn) annual investment identified by the 'Foresight' study as being needed to stabilise flood risk in a changing climate.” Source: DEFRA (UK)  05-09-2007 NL: strengthening 'weak links' in Dutch coast begins Today, deputy minister Huizinga of the Dutch ministry for transport, public works and water management has given the official starting signal for strengthening the Dutch coast at the town of Noordwijk and Flaauwe Werk (Ouddorp). These coastal defences are the first eight of ten "weak links" (Dutch: Zwakke Schakels") to be strengthened (see map).
Until 2015 the ministry will allocate a total sum of € 742 million to improve the coastal defences for both flood safety and spatial quality. Besides Noordwijk and Ouddorp, dune areas and dikes in North of Holland, near Scheveningen, the Westland, Southwest of Walcheren and the Western part of Zeeuws-Vlaanderen (see map). Despite the succesful yearly nourishment programmes to hold the coastline at the 1990 position, these locations are expected to fail to meet the existing safety standards in 2020. The underlying plan studies for strengthening the coast, initiated by the relevant provinces, have combined coastal safety with other functions in an integrated way. For instance, the renovation of boulevards or new beach access, cycling routes and nature facilities. In the majority of the weak links has been chosen for seaward-directed strengthening solutions, in combination with large scale sand nourishments. The weak links programme is only one of the programmes of the Dutch ministry. Also public works in the Meuse river, the flood defence strengthening programme and the Space for Rivers programme are currently being implemented. In total, about € 5 billion is invested in flood safety in the Netherlands until 2015.  Sources: Delfland waterboard, Waterforum 07-08-2007 Journal of Flood Risk Management With Blackwell Publishing, the Chartered Institution of Water and Environment Management (CIWEM) is launching the ‘Journal of Flood Risk Management.’ This online-only journal will provide an international platform for knowledge sharing and information dissemination across the range of disciplines where flood related research is carried out. The journal will cover a wide range of topics including modelling, infrastructure management, hydrology, flood forecasting, land use management, policy and legislation, as well as uncertainty analysis and risk. The journal is now open for paper submissions. Readers and authors come from a wide background and include hydrologists, meteorologists, geographers, geomorphologists, conservationists, civil engineers, social scientists, policy makers, insurers and practitioners. Source: Blackwell Publishing 03-08-2007 UK slowly recovers from floods, estimate flood damage up to €4.8 billion The wettest May-July period since records began in 1766 brought two rounds of flooding to parts of England, killing at least nine people, damaging houses and destroying crops. Picturesque towns in western England have been transformed into islands, with buildings on higher ground surrounded by dirty, brown water. The floods have already been documented extensively in Wikipedia.  Flood recoveryToday, 140,000 properties served by Severn Trent in and around Cheltenham, Gloucester and Tewkesbury have been reconnected to running mains water after relying on bottled water and emergency water tanks placed on the streets. Although sunshine helped shrink water levels Tuesday, more rain was expected in the next few days. Forecasters, however, said additional flooding wasn’t expected. “Rainfall-wise, the worst is over, certainly for the working week," said John Hammond of Met Office, the UK national weather service. Queen Elizabeth II sent a message of support to flooded areas, saying she was “shocked and deeply concerned” by the damage. She thanked the emergency services, military and volunteers and expressed sympathy “to all the many people whose homes have been damaged, livelihoods threatened, or who have been affected by the water and power shortages. Insurance costs The summer floods could cost insurers between £2.25 billion (€3.34 billion) and £3.25 (€4.8 billion) billion in total, according to latest estimates by leading catastrophe-exposure modelling company Risk Management Solutions (RMS). Insured losses from the July flood are likely to be between £1.0 billion (€1.49 billion) and £1.5 billion (€2.23 billion), with the estimated cost of the 25 June flood ranging from £1.25 billion (€1.86 billion) to £1.75 billion (€2.6 billion). These figures could be higher than many insurers expected, based on their initial estimates of the risk. RMS analysis of the more than 1,000 affected postcodes shows that almost 70% of the areas impacted by the July floods were in areas considered to be off the major river floodplains. “Many insurers assess their flood risk exposure based on maps that only take account of river and coastal flooding,” commented Dr. Claire Souch, senior director of model management at RMS. “The recent events highlight that these incomplete maps only provide part of the picture, and that flooding due to heavy rainfall in areas with inadequate drainage or from minor streams can have dire consequences. Those insurers that have only taken account of their risk exposure from direct river flooding could face an unexpected deluge of claims.” Although the number of residential properties affected by the July floods – currently thought to be up to 15,000 – is much lower than the 27,500 flooded in late June, average claims are expected to be higher, as the affected properties tend to be of higher value and a greater proportion of the damage will be insured. However, the total insured cost for commercial properties in the July floods is likely to be lower than for the June flood, as the businesses impacted were generally smaller. Additionally, the UK Government has set up a scheme in some areas to help small and medium-sized companies develop recovery plans so they can return to business as soon as possible, which should constrain business interruption costs. A big factor pushing up residential and commercial property repair costs will be the inflated prices for goods and services in short supply, known as demand surge. “There is currently a shortage of drying equipment, made worse by the fact that it is still needed in areas affected by the June flood. The recent power cuts also mean that, even when dryers have been available, they have been unusable,” said Dr. Souch. “This results in properties remaining flooded, which increases the damage, and may also force people to find alternative accommodation. All these factors increase the costs for insurers.”  Flooding of the village of Catcliffe, near Sheffield UK. Source: BBC
A further issue is ‘coverage expansion’, whereby insurers may need to pay out more than is covered in the issued policies. For example, after major disasters insurers often end up meeting the total costs of people having to relocate, or paying the full amount to replace contents that may have been undervalued when a policy was taken out. Although it is unusual to have two very intense rainfall flash floods in a short period, it is not abnormal to see flash flooding covering widespread areas with both on and off floodplain losses. European assistance? The UK is to seek assistance from the European Union to help cover the multi-billion euro cost of the country's destructive flooding in June and July, the UK government said on Wednesday. The minister in charge of handling the flood crisis, John Healey, said the UK would apply for assistance from the EU's Solidarity Fund, which was set up in 2002 to help member states deal with the uninsurable costs of natural disasters. Depending on the final cost of the flood damage, the UK said it could expect to get between £62.5 million (€93 million) and £125 million (€185 million) from the Solidarity Fund, if its application was approved. For the application to be successful, the technical criteria set out by the EU state the total amount of damage caused by a natural disaster has to exceed £2.2 billion (€3.3 million). The European Commission do not provide full funding for the cost of the damage. They would only provide a proportion of the costs which they decide - insurers will also have a key role to play as well as central government, local government, industry and other agencies playing their part as well. Sources: RMS press release, BBC, Reuters, MSNBC, Communities and local government 24-07-2007 UK: Severn and Thames rivers threaten to overflow The flooding crisis in central and western England continues with thousands of homes losing water and electricity supplies.
 Severe flood warnings are in place for the Midlands, Oxfordshire and Bedfordshire. At their height, some rivers will be more than 20ft higher than normal. Environment Agency spokesman Anthony Perry said: "We have not seen flooding of this magnitude before. The benchmark was 1947 and this has already exceeded it." In March 1947, millions of pounds of damage was caused in the south of England, the Midlands, East Anglia and North Yorkshire when many rivers burst their banks. Other main developments include:
Source: BBC  17-07-2007 NL: no updated safety standards before end 2008 The Dutch parliament needs to wait until end 2008 for a proposal for new flood safety standards. Several parliamentary parties have been urging for a debate about flood risk and feel that it is not giving enough priority. Deputy Minister Huizinga (Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management) has requested the parliament to wait for the results of several ongoing studies. Standards not adjusted since 1960 The political debate is needed because the safety standards have not been updated since 1960. Since then both the pressure from sea (sea level rise) and from land (socio-economical developments) have increased. The institute for public health and environment has calculated that the value behind the Dutch dikes has increased by a factor of 6 since the sixties. Meanwhile, the first results of project FLORIS (Dutch: VNK) has shown given the insight that there are many more failure mechanisms for dikes, sluices and dunes than can be anticipated in the Dutch flood defence act.  Postponement of further differentiation of standards Further differentiation of flood safety standards is an important part of the policy development. The Netherlands now knows four different safety standards based on statistical chance that water flows over the defence work: 1:10.000 (South and Central Holland), 1:4000 (Zeeland and Wadden coast), 1:2000 (lower river area) and 1:1250 (upper river area). The idea is to further differentiate these standards per dike ring depending on the socio-economical value of/in the protected area. Research about this is ongoing, also in the FLORIS2 project that recently has been launched. New economic developments in low-lying polders The possibility of updated safety standards make it difficult to assess current development projects in low lying areas that are sometimes many metres below sea level. Members of Parliament urged the deputy minister for a plan how to deal with developments in the deep dutch polders. Source: waterforum.net 02-07-2007 Journey of the rubber duckies They were toys destined only to bob up and down in nothing bigger than a child's bath - but so far they have floated halfway around the world. The armada of 29,000 plastic yellow ducks, blue turtles and green frogs broke free from a cargo ship 15 years ago. Since then they have travelled 27,000 km floating over the site where the Titanic sank, landing in Hawaii and even spending years frozen in an Arctic ice pack. And now they are heading straight for Britain. At some point this summer they are expected to be spotted on beaches in South-West England.  While the ducks are undoubtedly a loss to the bath-time fun of thousands of children, their adventures at sea have proved an invaluable aid to science. The toys have helped researchers to chart the great ocean currents because when they are spotted bobbing on the waves they are much more likely to be reported to the authorities than the floats which scientists normally use. And because the toys are made of durable plastic and are sealed watertight, they have been able to survive years adrift at the mercy of the elements. Boxes of the bathtime toys - made in China for the U.S. firm The First Years Inc - were washed overboard in the eastern Pacific Ocean one stormy January night in 1992 and broke open. In the intervening time an oceanographer, Curtis Ebbesmeyer, has devoted his retirement to tracking the little yellow ducks and their friends over 27,000 km, and it is he who has predicted that this summer they will land in the West of England. Mr Ebbesmeyer said: 'We're getting reports of ducks being washed up on America's eastern seaboard. "It is now inevitable that they will get caught up in the Atlantic currents and will turn up on English beaches.  "Cornwall and the South-West will probably get the first wave of them." Mr Ebbesmeyer said the toys will be easy for British beachboardcombers to spot because they have largely faded to white and have the words "The First Years" stamped upon them. George Bush Snr was still US President when the toys from The First Years Inc. were made in China, packed into a container and put on a ship for the US. But after falling overboard, the sea water corroded the card-packaging and the toys floated free. They circled the northern Pacific once before being washed up on the Alaskan shore, then all down the West coast of Canada and the US. Mr Ebbesmeyer saw immediately how valuable the little toys would be to scientific research of the great ocean currents, the engine of the planet's entire climate. He correctly predicted what many thought was impossible - that thousands of them would end up washed into the Arctic ice near Alaska, and then move at a mile a day, frozen in the pack ice, around their very own North-West Passage to the Atlantic. It proved true years later and in 2003, the first "Friendly Floatees" were found, frozen and then thawed out, on the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and Canada. So precious to science are they that the US firm that made them is offering a £50 bounty for finding one. THE JOURNEY SO FAR: January 10, 1992: Somewhere in the middle of the Pacific Ocean nearly 29,000 First Years bath toys, including bright yellow rubber ducks, are spilled from a cargo ship in the Pacific Ocean. November 16, 1992: Caught in the Subpolar Gyre (counter-clockwise ocean current in the Bering Sea, between Alaska and Siberia), the ducks take 10 months to begin landing on the shores of Alaska. Early 1995: The ducks take three years to circle around. East from the drop site to Alaska, then west and south to Japan before turning back north and east passing the original drop site and again landing in North America. Some ducks are even found In Hawaii. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) worked out that the ducks travel approximately 50 per pent faster than the water in the current. 1995 - 2000: Some intrepid ducks escape the Subpolar Gyre and head North, through the Bering Straight and into the frozen waters of the Arctic. Frozen into the ice the ducks travel slowly across the pole, moving ever eastward. 2000: Ducks begin reaching the North Atlantic where they begin to thaw and move Southward. Soon ducks are sighted bobbing in the waves from Maine to Massachusetts. 2001: Ducks are tracked in the area where the Titanic sank. Second half of 2003: The First Years company offers a $100 savings bond reward for the recovery of wayward ducks from the 1992 spill. To be valid ducks must be sent to the company and must be found in New England, Canada or Iceland. Britain is told to prepare for an invasion of the wayward ducks as well. 2003: A lawyer called Sonali Naik was on holiday in the Hebrides in north-west Scotland when she found a faded green frog on the beach marked with the magic words 'The First Years'. Unaware of the significance of her find she left it on the beach. It was only when she was chatting to other guests at her hotel that she realised what she had seen. 2007: "It is now inevitable that they will get caught up in the Atlantic currents and will turn up on English beaches" Source: Daily Mail 26-06-2007 UK: British Insurers advice on climate change adaptation The Association of British Insurers (ABI) presented a new publication "Adapting to our Changing Climate: A Manifesto for business, government and the public" with recommendation how the UK can adapt to climate change.
Their main message is:
Insurers will work with the Government, the wider business community and customers to ensure that Britain is prepared for climate change.
Together, by 2011, we should:
25-06-2007 "Worst credible floods" in the North Sea coastal region Within the scope of the Interreg project Chain of Safety, ‘Worst Credible Flood’ scenarios are defined. The scenarios present the threatened areas of a ‘worst credible flood’ in the North Sea Region. A ‘worst credible flood’ is a flood, which occurs during a very extreme, however still possible situation.
Storm surges represent a major natural hazard in the North Sea region, with around 40,000 km² of low-lying land at coastal flood risk in the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Denmark and the UK.
If during a major storm the flood defence measures cannot resist the pressure of a large storm, large areas are at risk to flooding.
Since flooding disasters and their effects do not stop at local, regional or even national borders, transnational cooperation in contingency planning is very important.
 I SE England (NE storm)
II SE England, Belgium, SW Holland (N storm)
III W Holland (NW storm)
IV N Holland and NW Germany (N storm)
V NW Germany and SW Denmark (W storm)To make good preparation on flood disasters, it is important to get insight in the potential scale of a coastal flooding. The figure above presents the threatened areas of a ‘worst credible flood’ in the North Sea Region. A ‘worst credible flood’ is a flood, which occurs during a very extreme, however still possible situation.
Contingency planners can base their preparations on the ‘worst credible flood’ scenarios.
In the framework of the Dutch ‘National Strategy for High Water and Storm Surge Crisis’ flood defence experts have developed the ‘worst credible flood’ scenarios and translated them to zones in which different areas maybe flooded simultaneously (figure 2). The scenarios are based on situation that exceed the level of protection.
In this case only area I, II and IV are relevant. These storm surges occur with wind speeds of 12 Bft or more. The duration of storm surges depends on the tide and the duration of the storm. In these scenarios the duration is set on 45 hours. The average prediction time is 15 hours.
 Based on these insights and on historical date of storms occurred in the past, a qualitative extrapolation into the North Sea has been made (figure 3). It has been assumed that the location of simultaneous flooded areas along the North Sea depends on the wind pattern direction of the storm: NW storms threaten the Dutch coast, N storms threaten the German bight and North Holland and when a N storm runs more to the southern part of the North Sea, Southeast England, Belgium, South West Holland are threatened. NE storms threaten the Southeast coast of the United Kingdom and a W storm will threaten the coast of the Germany and Denmark.
 21-06-2007 NL: Climate proofing in government plans The Netherlands need to be made climate-proof and ' water ' need be imbedded better in the spatial planning. This according to ' point 26 ' in the policy programme 2006-2011 that has been presented on the 14th of June by the fourth cabinet Balkenende. First of all research needs to be done which will give a long-term overview of the vulnerability of the Dutch infrastructure. State Secretary of the Ministry of Water, Tineke Huizinga, spent a hundred days visiting several locations to see how water is of vital importance for every day life. Huizinga is expected to launch a water strategy document in September in which these experiences will be incorporated. Important task for water management Export of knowledge Water policy not so popular at the Dutch House of Representatives. The complete text of the three points – 26, 27 and 28 – of the Dutch policy programme 2007-2011 can be found here (in Dutch only).
Source: www.waterforum.net 21-06-2007 UK: Uncertainties future safety Thames Barrier The cost of protecting London and the south-east from flooding will be at least £4bn as sea levels rise and the south-east coast sinks over the next century, a report for the Environment Agency has warned. Experts have recognised that the Thames Barrier should be able to guard against the possibility of a major flood until 2030, but say that billions need to be spent on raising 300km of other defences to protect the capital - and even more than that if the sea level rises still further. At worst, the cost of a major new barrier would be 'in excess of £20bn', says the report by the Thames Estuary 2100 project team. 'The more we curb emissions [blamed for global warming], therefore, the less investment will be required in extreme measures to combat the increasing risk from sea-level rise and climate change,' adds the report. Dave Wardle, the EA's area manager for the Thames region, said the report showed that the Thames Barrier, opened in 1982, had been well designed and maintained, but that the agency would need more money from government in future. The EA is currently budgeting £200m over 12 years on extra defences, and a Government Foresight report in 2004, 'Future Flooding', called for investment in flood defence and coastal erosion to rise by £10m-£30m a year to limit the average annual damage of flooding to £2bn a year by 2080. Damage is currently £1bn a year, said the EA. 'All research shows more investment in flood defences is needed to take into account the increasing vulnerability of communities facing the unavoidable impacts of climate change,' added Wardle. The report also said the Environment Agency's Making Space for Water strategy, which aims to find land which can store floodwater, from parks to car parks, could extend the life of the Thames Barrier by 50 to 80 years beyond 2030. The report's findings are based on the government estimate that the average rise in sea level by 2100 will be 0.94 metres, although it also considered higher estimates of up to 4.2 metres. About 1mm a year of the increase is due to geological changes as southern England subsides; the rest is because global warming is causing ice to melt and seawater to expand, said Professor Jim Hall of Newcastle University, who has advised the EA on flood risk in the region. 'These are pretty conservative scenarios, but London is an important place, so it's important they look at some far-out what-ifs - even if these are not the basis for the design.' More information can be found here.
Source: The Observer 11-06-2007 Safecoast workshop 'Strategic investments in the coastal zone' Within the scope of the project Safecoast Rijkswaterstaat DWW and the Coastal Division and the Flanders Hydraulic Research of the Ministry of the Flemish Community has organised a workshop on strategic investments in coastal flood risk management. During the morning session several speakers gave a nice overview on different possibilities and method, like technical studies, cost-benefit analysis and ICZM, how be more 'future prove' in the coastal zone. The report of the workshop can be downloaded here. One of the main outcomes is that cost-benefit analysis together with technical studies has to be taken in to be part of the process to get a good integrated plan.
08-06-2007 NL: play some educational games If you like to sharpen your knowledge in a non-boring way, project Safecoast has developed some interactive educational games you can play. Four games dealing with flood safety and climate change can be found below. Click on the images below to start playing.     01-06-2007 NL: dissertation on loss of life estimation in flood risk assessments Last week, the dissertation from Bas Jonkman was released as result of his Ph D work at the Delft University of Technology. His thesis is a scientific approach to the estimation of casualties in flood risk assessments. Quantitative risk analysis is generally used to quantify the risks associated with accidents in a technical system. The resulting risk estimates, expressing the combination of probabilities and consequences of a set of possible accidents, provide the input for risk evaluation and decision-making. One of the most important types of consequences of accidents concerns the loss of human life. In general, there is limited insight in the magnitude of loss of life caused by accidents, and no general methodology that can be used to estimate loss of life for different event types is available. In particular in the field of flood risk assessment, limited insight exists in the number of fatalities that can result from the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. In the first part of this thesis a general approach for loss of life estimation and risk quantification is proposed. The second part focuses on the estimation of loss of life caused by floods. The thesis can be downloaded here (6 mb) or in Safecoast's national files page (click on the Netherlands).  11-05-2007 NL: Institute releases report on flood risk as a spatial planning challenge Last week, the Dutch spatial planning institute (RPB, Ruimtelijk Planbureau) has released a report on flood risk management as a spatial planning challenge. Below the main findings are reproduced such as found on the website of the RPB (www.rpb.nl). The report may be downloaded here. Future investments against floods (water safety) should therefore not only focus on stronger barriers and sea walls but also on a more flexible and robust system of spatial planning. Hence, we propose a water planning strategy. Space should be organized in such a way that flood damage in built-up areas would be minimal. If water were to break through the most prominent dykes (dyke rings), there would be considerable variations in the depth and rate of inundation. The first task in a water planning strategy would therefore be to develop an adequate flood-risk zoning for dyke-enclosed areas. Then, an appropriate mix of spatial and policy measures could be worked out for each zone. The Dutch government and the provincial and municipal authorities need to concentrate much more on the different flood-risk zones when designating development sites and organising building programmes. Areas designated for housing should be in the safest zones. It is better not to build at all in high-risk areas where flooding would be fast and deep or, at any rate, to build only to a limited extent with the necessary modifications. The areas closest to the first line of defence could better be reserved for water retention. It would be relatively safe to develop in risk zones, where flooding would be slower or shallower, provided there is a good evacuation plan and mitigation strategy. Water-based housing (live-aboards) is becoming increasingly popular; however, people also want to feel protected. This tension between safety and liveability provides the agenda for the design. A water strategy aimed at risk mitigation can generate added value for spatial planning. It will take a considerable effort to create a safe living environment based on flood-mitigation in an at-risk area. Policymakers, developers and individuals need to be properly aware of the risks of building and living in such areas" 03-05-2007 EU research project on coastal erosion launches website Recently, the EU Funded research project (FP6) Conscience for sustainable coastal erosion management has launched it's website. The first aim of the project is to define a decision-making framework based on the concepts formulated by the EUROSION project, i.c. coastal resilience, coastal sediment cells (see picture), favourable sediment status and strategic sediment reservoirs. The second aim is to develop these concepts into measurable standards, which can be evaluated in practice for any field situation. The third aim is to link these standards to ongoing European initiatives as GEO/GMES, the European Soil Strategy in preparation, The European Maritime Strategy and the Recommendation on Integrated Coastal Zone Management. The fourth aim is to produce guidelines and tools to enable an effective implementation in European coastal management. The practical applicability and effectiveness of the guidelines and tools will be evaluated in selected test sites. It is envisaged that the combination of the decision-making framework and the provision of guidelines and tools will prove highly valuable to coastal managers when deciding on the most sustainable method of managing erosion at any given location. Therefore the project results will be broadly disseminated to stakeholders at local, regional and European levels.
 12-04-2007 NL: Adaptation programme Space & Climate leads to national strategy Last year, The Netherlands have initiated the National Programme Space and Climate (ARK). With this, 4 ministries have co-operated with the umbrella organisations of the provinces, municipalities and the waterboards. All parties have underlined the urgency that spatial adaptation to the effects of climate change is necessary and has recently led to a national strategy. Goal of this strategy is to make the Netherlands 'climate-proof' for the next hundred years, and to make climate change adaptation 'mainstream' in all policies from 2015. Inter-ministerial and inter-governmental agreements will be underlined in a pending 'national adaptation agenda'. Although in Dutch, download the national strategy here. Find a background document in English, a 'qualitative assessment of climate adaptation options' here Read more here  06-04-2007 IPCC Working Group II releases report The Working Group II "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" contribution to the "Climate Change 2007" Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been presented to the press in Brussels today. Additional press briefings focusing on specific impacts at the regional level will follow in various locations around the world starting from 10 April. The report assesses the latest scientific, environmental and socio-economic literature on "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability". It provides a comprehensive analysis of how climate change is affecting natural and human systems, what the impacts will be in the future and how far adaptation and mitigation can reduce these impacts. The report also contains chapters on specific systems, sectors and regions. Key findings of the report include: • 75-250 million people across Africa could face water shortages by 2020 • Crop yields increase could increase by 20% in East and Southeast Asia, but decrease by up to 30% in Central and South Asia • Agriculture fed by rainfall could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020 • 20-30% of all plant and animal species at increased risk of extinction if temperatures rise between 1.5-2.5C • Glaciers and snow cover expected to decline, reducing water availability in countries supplied by melt water  The report states that the observed increase in the global average temperature was "very likely" due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The scientific work reviewed by IPCC scientists includes more than 29,000 pieces of data on observed changes in physical and biological aspects of the natural world. Eighty-nine percent of these, it believes, are consistent with a warming world. Read more here. Download the summary for policy makers here. 08-03-2007 EEA reviews the challenges facing Europe to adapt to the impacts of climate Last month, the European Environment Agency (EEA) has publicised a report on climate change adaptation. The report reviews the challenges facing Europe to adapt to the impacts of climate change on water resources. Water is a critical sector for people's lives and the economy. Even if emissions of greenhouse gases were stabilised today, increases in temperature and the associated impacts, including those on water availability and flooding, will continue for many decades to come. Using a policy analysis at European level, and a survey, the report reviews practices in countries and concludes that countries are aware of these impacts and have started to adapt to them but there is still much to do. This material is also presented by country in an annex. The need for research on the vulnerability of society and ecosystems to climate change impacts is felt by many of countries, particularly for the water sector. Better databases on frequency, intensity and effects of extreme events and on national adaptation practises, including responses to these extremes, would facilitate the development of effective adaptation strategies. Download the report here. Source: European Environment Agency  07-03-2007 EU Exchange circle on flood mapping (EXCIMAP) make atlas
The network has been set up for encouraging and facilitating exchanges between European experts in view of developing flood mapping. The main objective of EXCIMAP is to produce a guide presenting the good practices (available in Europe) to mobilize when executing flood mapping. To be consistent with this proposed European Flood Directive, EXCIMAP has decided to focus its work on the minimum requirements of the Directive concerning flood mapping. As part of the work to be done for this guide an inventory was made of examples of maps and mapping programmes in the participating countries. The result of this inventory is this “Atlas of Flood Maps in Europe”. It contains examples from 17 EU countries. In addition examples from Japan and USA are included, as countries with a long history on dealing with natural hazards in general and floods in particular. In the coming months the product will be finalised and will also be available at safecoast.org. Download this short memo for the Dutch progress on flood maps. 05-03-2007 Working together to meet the EU climate target The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) and the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) have sketched four alternative scenarios in the climate policy domain.
For the Dutch report (with English summary) click here. Click here for website of The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
26-02-2007 Final Conference of project FRaME The Interreg IIIb project FRaME presented on February 14th in their final conference the outcomes of the project. FRaME stands for 'Flood Risk management in Estuaries: Sustainable New Land Use in Flood Control Areas' and is a transnational project for developing innovative solutions for flood risk management in estuaries. The project combines a range of transnational activities with demonstration sites that are located in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands.  22-02-2007 UK: Flood insurers concerned about sea level rise The East coast of England is under threat from rising sea levels and greater investment is needed now in our coastal flood defences. These are the conclusions of a report published in November 2006 by the ABI (Association of British Insurers). A 40cm rise in sea levels could happen as soon as 2040. Coastal flood risk – Thinking for tomorrow, acting today assesses the threat from rising sea levels, and examines the impact on the east coast and in particular on Hull, Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft, Southend, East London and Hastings. The Risk Management Solutions (RMS) storm surge model was used to model the current and future impacts of the coastal flooding along the East coast of England. The model has been designed to enable changes in the elevation, fragility characteristics, and breaching behaviour components of individual defences along sections of the coastline. It's different modules are sketched below (click on the image to download the underlying technical document).  The main overall report concludes: • A 40cm rise in sea levels will put an extra 130,000 properties at risk of flooding. In total 400,000 properties will be at risk, up nearly 50% on the current number. In Hull alone 19,000 properties could suffer serious flooding; 24,000 properties in Southend. • Without improvements to existing flood defences, the cost of a major coastal flood could soar by 400% and cost as much as £16 billion. • Essential services and lives will be at risk. 15% of fire and ambulance stations and 12% of hospitals and schools are in flood-risk areas. • The elderly will be particularly affected as the number living on, or moving to, the coast is well above the national average. And recommends: • Investing in improved coastal defences to reduce the number of properties at risk. An extra £8 billion needs to be spent over the next 25-30 years to improve coastal defences along the East Coast. • A long-term flood management strategy, which looks at funding needs 25–30 years ahead, and regional planning taking into account the likely impact of climate change in 50 and 100 years time. Download the report here Click on the image below for more technical background resources on the ABI website. Source: Association of British Insurers (ABI)  16-02-2007 NL: accelerated sea level rise not visible in Rijkswaterstaat measurements The International Climatepanel IPCC of the United Nations has adjusted its scenarios on sea level rise to 19-58 cm per 100 years in the recently published 4th Assessment Report. In the previous report from 2001, IPCC assumed sea level rise to be between 9 to 88 cm per 100 years. This recent narrowing of bandwith can be explained by the increasing knowledge of sea water expansion due to global warming and the output of glacier and polar icesheet meltwater. Remarkable is the observation of IPCC that - globally - sea levels rise in an accelerated way. The last decade the sea level rose about 31 cm per century, whereas the last 40 years sea levels rose with 18 cm per decade. The accelerated sea level rise however does not reflect measurements in the North Sea from the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat. Sea levels in the North Sea have risen about 20cm in last century (see graph below, source: RIKZ).
Tidal gauge measurements (since mid 19th century) versus the increasingly accurate satellite measurements do not yet confirm the acceleration as observed by IPCC. Read more about the IPCC report here.
03-02-2007 January 2007 warmest in Netherlands in 300 years This month has been the warmest January in the Netherlands since temperatures were first measured in 1706, the Dutch meteorological institute KNMI said on Wednesday. The average temperature in January was about 7.1 degrees Celsius, 2.8 degrees more than the usual for the month and significantly exceeding a previous record of 6.2 degrees reached in 1921, 1975 and 1983, KNMI said in a statement.  Last year was the warmest on record in the Netherlands, which the agency had linked to global warming. Dutch temperature records are among the oldest in the world. Methodical thermometer-based records began on a more global basis around 1850. KNMI officials have said that the 10 warmest years in the Netherlands occurred in the past 18 years, which was in line with rising global temperatures and was a sign of a warming planet. The KNMI's climate scenarios envisage more extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms in the Netherlands and northern Europe in the next few decades to 2050. Earlier this month, Europe was hit by a severe storm, the worst in years, with hurricane-force winds that cut a swathe from Britain via the Netherlands to Poland and killed about 60 people. Source: Reuters / Washington Post / KNMI 02-02-2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presents 4th Assessment Report On Friday Febuary 2nd the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN presents their new results on climate change. This is the first time that the group asserted with a certainty of more than 90% that carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities were the main drivers of global warming since 1950.
"We can be very confident that the net effect of human activity since 1750 has been one of warming," co-lead author Dr Susan Soloman told delegates in Paris.
The panel strongly warns about further acceleration of the global temperature and predicts a temperature rise of 1.8-4C (3.2-7.2F) by the end of the century. It also projected that sea levels were most likely to rise by 28-43cm, and global warming was likely to influence the intensity of tropical storms. If the ice on Greenland and Antarctica melt, it is possible the sea level will rise even more.
The findings are the first of four IPCC reports to be published this year. Click here to download the policy summary. More information can be found here and here.
01-02-2007 USA: Is politics invading climate science? Political interference in science is causing widespread alarm across the United States. This resulted in a hearing on political influence on government climate change scientists. Thousands of scientists are accusing the Bush administration of systematically suppressing, manipulating and distorting their work. Many government scientists have resigned in protest, claiming that industrial and ideological powers are infiltrating their work to an unprecedented level. In The Science Blacklist, BBC Washington correspondent Justin Webb investigates the growing number of US science scandals - from editing climate change research to repressing the sale of contraceptives The U.S. Climate Change Science Program distributed a survey to over 1,600 federal climate scientists, which asked for information about the state of federal climate research. Responses were received from 279 scientists. Results of the survey include: "Forty-six percent of respondents perceived or personally experienced pressure to eliminate the words “climate change,” “global warming,” or other similar terms from a variety of communications. Forty-three percent of respondents reported they had perceived or personally experienced changes or edits during review of their work that changed the meaning of their scientific findings. Forty-six percent of respondents perceived or personally experienced new or unusual administrative requirements that impair climate-related work. Twenty-five percent of respondents perceived or personally experienced situations in which scientists have objected to, resigned from, or removed themselves from a project because of pressure to change scientific findings. Fifty-eight percent stated that they had personally experienced one or more incidents of interference over the past five years. The number of incidents totaled at least 435." The US Oversight Committee held a hearing on January 30 regarding political interference in the work of government climate change scientists. In preparation for the hearing, Chairman Waxman and Ranking Member Davis requested documents from the Council on Environmental Quality related to allegations that officials edited scientific reports and took other actions to minimize the significance of climate change. Read more here, here and here  31-01-2007 Safecoast delivers quick scan climate change adaptation Last week the Safecoast project has finalised a comparative study dealing with climate change adaptation (with a focus on coastal flood safety policies). This study will form a step stone towards discussing a joint vision in the Safecoast partnership on climate adaptation options with respect to coastal flooding. National debates about adaptation to climate change are often linked to the international (EU or global) debates. We can observe that for decades the attention has mainly focused on mitigation of climate change (through reduction of CO2 emissions) and much less focused on adapting to its consequences (climate change adaptation). More and more now it becomes acknowledged that significant changes are unavoidable and that we should adapt to these changes. Furthermore, it has become apparent that the results of the general debates on climate change tend to focus on a series of adaptation measures for the short- and long-term, which in turn are related to climate change scenario’s (sea level rise). Each country has a different combination of adaptation measures and scenario’s depending on the coastline, the national policy and the social/cultural view on coastal flooding. You may download the report here [PDF - 0,9 mb] or in the downloads section of this website.
30-01-2007 UK: Anniversary of 1607 tsunami A suspected tsunami in the Bristol Channel which killed 2,000 people happened 400 years ago today.  Experts believe severe flooding on 30 January 1607 in south west England and south Wales was caused by a tsunami - and not a storm surge or high tides. It is estimated 520 km2 of land were covered by water. Simon Hasslett from Bath Spa University in the UK said the research was important as there was currently no tsunami warning system in place. He said it was important for informing coastal and risk management plans. Download his 2-page story on the Somerset tsunami of 1607 here The flood of 1607 has been described by experts as the worst natural disaster to hit Britain. Eyewitness accounts of the disaster told of "huge and mighty hills of water" advancing at a speed "faster than a greyhound can run". Mr Hasslett carried out extensive research into the cause of the flood alongside Australian geologist and tsunami expert Ted Bryant from the University of Wollongong in 2003. Dr Claire Souch, director of model management at Risk Management Solutions (RMS) and a co-author of the report claims that an "exceptional event" on the scale of the 1607 flood, with a storm surge of nine metres, could overwhelm existing flood defences. More than 80% of the total losses from the same event today would occur in the cities of Bristol, Cardiff and Gloucester, with the remaining losses along the south-western coast of Wales and around Barnstaple in Devon. Dr Souch said: "We've run a variety of simulations of a storm surge coming up the Bristol Channel today and in the worst case scenario the flood heights would be so high, they would over-top existing defences and cause flooding over an extremely large area and a possible damage of more than 13 billion pounds. Read more here, and here Source: BBC A woodcut from a 1607 pamphlet shows the devastation the water caused  29-01-2007 UK newspaper: 4th IPCC report, the vicious cycle The Britsh newspaper The Independer reveals the outcomes of a draft copy of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It says that global temperature rises this century of between 2C and 4.5C are almost inevitable. Ominously, however, it also says that much higher increases of 6C "or more" cannot be ruled out. The final version of the IPCC's latest report is to be published on Friday but a draft copy, seen by The Independent, makes it clear that climate change could be far worse than previously thought because of potentially disastrous "positive" feedbacks which could accelerate rising temperatures. In the previous report of 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said the link was at least 66 percent certain. IPCC experts are meeting in Paris to discuss and approve the draft report. The report is also set to warn that average global temperatures will rise to 2.0 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 8.1 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a ''best estimate'' of a 3.0 C (5.4 F) rise, scientists say. Another section of the report, due in April, is expected to warn that between 1.1 and 3.2 billion people will face water shortages by the end of the century and hundreds of millions will go hungry, according to Australia's The Age newspaper. Coastal flooding will hit another 7 million homes. Source article: The Independer, UK Sea level rise as shown in the 3rd IPCC report 27-01-2007 Colleagues from the Comcoast project made a short movie Our colleagues from the Comcoast project have made a short film (6 mb) and some clarifying animations about their unique and innovative concept of widening coastal defences in order to better combine coastal functions such as safety, nature and living & working. ComCoast - COMbined functions in COASTal defence zones - is a European project which develops and demonstrates innovative solutions for flood protection in coastal areas. As in project Safecoast, Rijkswaterstaat, part of the Dutch Ministry of Public Works and Water Management, leads the project. Besides the Netherlands, four other North Sea countries are involved (UK, Germany, Belgium and Denmark). In total, ten partners constitute the project consortium. The partners share their knowledge and experience and develop the best possible practices, which will benefit all coastal defences comprising embankments in Europe. The main difference between project Safecoast and Comcoast is in their approach: Safecoast aims to find strategic ways for climate change adaptation, Comcoast underlines this need to show possible innovative solutions for a resilient coast where its different functions can be combined in the best possible way.  25-01-2007 Coastal development in Dubai: palm islands emerge  The Palm islands in Dubai are the three largest artificial islands in the world. They are being constructed by Nakheel Properties, a property developer in the United Arab Emirates. The islands are The Palm Jumeirah, The Palm Jebel Ali and The Palm Deira. The islands were commissioned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in order to increase Dubai's tourism. Each settlement will be in the shape of a palm tree, topped with a crescent, and will have a large number of residential, leisure and entertainment centers. The Palm Islands are located off the coast of The United Arab Emirates in the Persian Gulf and will add 520 km of beaches to the city of Dubai. The first two islands will comprise approximately 100 million cubic meters of rock and sand. Palm Deira will be composed of approximately 1 billion cubic meters of rock and sand. All materials will be quarried in the UAE. Between the three islands there will be over 100 luxury hotels, exclusive residential beachside villas and apartments, marinas, water theme parks, restaurants, shopping malls, sports facilities and health spas. The creation of The Palm Jumeirah began in June 2001. Shortly after, The Palm Jebel Ali was announced and reclamation work began. In 2004, The Palm Deira, which will be larger in size than Paris, was announced. Palm Jumeirah is currently open for development. Construction will be completed over the next 10-15 years. Source: Wikipedia, Landsat 15-01-2007 North Sea Coastal Managers Group consulted for Dutch Coastal Policy Today, on monday January 15th, the North Sea Coastal Managers Group came to The Hague to discuss the Third Coastal Policy Document of the Netherlands and to share coastal management experiences from the neighbouring countries.
The Dutch Third Coastal Policy Document (see the Dutch national files) is being evaluated and the results and the lessons learned will give input to a new coastal policy vision. The results were presented to the NSCMG and the main issues for discussion were ‘How to deal with climate change, PPP (Public Private Partnership) and beach nourishments for tourist purposes’. Signals from the NSCMG were to communicate with the other ministries for a joint ownership of coastal issues to clearly map responsibilities. Even though PPP can be a efficient style of outsourcing (e.g. sand nourishments), the NSCMG gave some clear indications for improvement. The discussion on climate change adaptation showed that it is a problem for each country, and that they all deal with the climate change scenarios differently in their policies. See table below for the different sea level rise scenarios that exist in the North Sea countries.  * Background information Belgium: Linear 5 mm/yr 2005-2055 Mean Sea Level 6 mm/yr 2005-2055 Hight Tide
Source: IMDC (2005) The Netherlands: Semi-linear 2 mm/yr: short term design / nourishments) 6 mm/yr: long term design dikes,barriers 8,5 mm/yr: spatial reservations > 200yrs
Source: 3rd Coastal Policy Document (2002) NB: different (water) policy documents show different scenarios. Germany: Linear 5 mm/yr for Schleswig Holstein based on IPCC (2001) 6 mm/yr for Niedersachsen (land subsidence ~ 0,6 - 1mm/yr)
Sources: Schleswig-Holstein Ministerium für ländliche Räume, Landesplanung, Landwirtschaft und Tourismus (2002) Bezirksregierung Weser-Ems (1997)
Denmark: Pragmatic No formal policy scenario on sea level rise, although a linear rise in water level of about 5 mm/yr was taken into account for the steps leading down to Metro stations during the planning of the new metropolitan district 'Orestad' Source: EEA (2005) United Kingdom: Recently updated figures of 2003 now reflect an exponential and regionalised curve, and replaces the previous linear graph. See the Safecoast headline about this update. Source: DEFRA (2006), download update-report here |
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