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february 200726-02-2007Final Conference of project FRaME The Interreg IIIb project FRaME presented on February 14th in their final conference the outcomes of the project. FRaME stands for 'Flood Risk management in Estuaries: Sustainable New Land Use in Flood Control Areas' and is a transnational project for developing innovative solutions for flood risk management in estuaries. The project combines a range of transnational activities with demonstration sites that are located in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands.  22-02-2007 UK: Flood insurers concerned about sea level rise The East coast of England is under threat from rising sea levels and greater investment is needed now in our coastal flood defences. These are the conclusions of a report published in November 2006 by the ABI (Association of British Insurers). A 40cm rise in sea levels could happen as soon as 2040. Coastal flood risk – Thinking for tomorrow, acting today assesses the threat from rising sea levels, and examines the impact on the east coast and in particular on Hull, Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft, Southend, East London and Hastings. The Risk Management Solutions (RMS) storm surge model was used to model the current and future impacts of the coastal flooding along the East coast of England. The model has been designed to enable changes in the elevation, fragility characteristics, and breaching behaviour components of individual defences along sections of the coastline. It's different modules are sketched below (click on the image to download the underlying technical document).  The main overall report concludes: • A 40cm rise in sea levels will put an extra 130,000 properties at risk of flooding. In total 400,000 properties will be at risk, up nearly 50% on the current number. In Hull alone 19,000 properties could suffer serious flooding; 24,000 properties in Southend. • Without improvements to existing flood defences, the cost of a major coastal flood could soar by 400% and cost as much as £16 billion. • Essential services and lives will be at risk. 15% of fire and ambulance stations and 12% of hospitals and schools are in flood-risk areas. • The elderly will be particularly affected as the number living on, or moving to, the coast is well above the national average. And recommends: • Investing in improved coastal defences to reduce the number of properties at risk. An extra £8 billion needs to be spent over the next 25-30 years to improve coastal defences along the East Coast. • A long-term flood management strategy, which looks at funding needs 25–30 years ahead, and regional planning taking into account the likely impact of climate change in 50 and 100 years time. Download the report here Click on the image below for more technical background resources on the ABI website. Source: Association of British Insurers (ABI)  16-02-2007 NL: accelerated sea level rise not visible in Rijkswaterstaat measurements The International Climatepanel IPCC of the United Nations has adjusted its scenarios on sea level rise to 19-58 cm per 100 years in the recently published 4th Assessment Report. In the previous report from 2001, IPCC assumed sea level rise to be between 9 to 88 cm per 100 years. This recent narrowing of bandwith can be explained by the increasing knowledge of sea water expansion due to global warming and the output of glacier and polar icesheet meltwater. Remarkable is the observation of IPCC that - globally - sea levels rise in an accelerated way. The last decade the sea level rose about 31 cm per century, whereas the last 40 years sea levels rose with 18 cm per decade. The accelerated sea level rise however does not reflect measurements in the North Sea from the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat. Sea levels in the North Sea have risen about 20cm in last century (see graph below, source: RIKZ).
Tidal gauge measurements (since mid 19th century) versus the increasingly accurate satellite measurements do not yet confirm the acceleration as observed by IPCC. Read more about the IPCC report here.
03-02-2007 January 2007 warmest in Netherlands in 300 years This month has been the warmest January in the Netherlands since temperatures were first measured in 1706, the Dutch meteorological institute KNMI said on Wednesday. The average temperature in January was about 7.1 degrees Celsius, 2.8 degrees more than the usual for the month and significantly exceeding a previous record of 6.2 degrees reached in 1921, 1975 and 1983, KNMI said in a statement.  Last year was the warmest on record in the Netherlands, which the agency had linked to global warming. Dutch temperature records are among the oldest in the world. Methodical thermometer-based records began on a more global basis around 1850. KNMI officials have said that the 10 warmest years in the Netherlands occurred in the past 18 years, which was in line with rising global temperatures and was a sign of a warming planet. The KNMI's climate scenarios envisage more extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms in the Netherlands and northern Europe in the next few decades to 2050. Earlier this month, Europe was hit by a severe storm, the worst in years, with hurricane-force winds that cut a swathe from Britain via the Netherlands to Poland and killed about 60 people. Source: Reuters / Washington Post / KNMI 02-02-2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presents 4th Assessment Report On Friday Febuary 2nd the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN presents their new results on climate change. This is the first time that the group asserted with a certainty of more than 90% that carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities were the main drivers of global warming since 1950.
"We can be very confident that the net effect of human activity since 1750 has been one of warming," co-lead author Dr Susan Soloman told delegates in Paris.
The panel strongly warns about further acceleration of the global temperature and predicts a temperature rise of 1.8-4C (3.2-7.2F) by the end of the century. It also projected that sea levels were most likely to rise by 28-43cm, and global warming was likely to influence the intensity of tropical storms. If the ice on Greenland and Antarctica melt, it is possible the sea level will rise even more.
The findings are the first of four IPCC reports to be published this year. Click here to download the policy summary. More information can be found here and here.
01-02-2007 USA: Is politics invading climate science? Political interference in science is causing widespread alarm across the United States. This resulted in a hearing on political influence on government climate change scientists. Thousands of scientists are accusing the Bush administration of systematically suppressing, manipulating and distorting their work. Many government scientists have resigned in protest, claiming that industrial and ideological powers are infiltrating their work to an unprecedented level. In The Science Blacklist, BBC Washington correspondent Justin Webb investigates the growing number of US science scandals - from editing climate change research to repressing the sale of contraceptives The U.S. Climate Change Science Program distributed a survey to over 1,600 federal climate scientists, which asked for information about the state of federal climate research. Responses were received from 279 scientists. Results of the survey include: "Forty-six percent of respondents perceived or personally experienced pressure to eliminate the words “climate change,” “global warming,” or other similar terms from a variety of communications. Forty-three percent of respondents reported they had perceived or personally experienced changes or edits during review of their work that changed the meaning of their scientific findings. Forty-six percent of respondents perceived or personally experienced new or unusual administrative requirements that impair climate-related work. Twenty-five percent of respondents perceived or personally experienced situations in which scientists have objected to, resigned from, or removed themselves from a project because of pressure to change scientific findings. Fifty-eight percent stated that they had personally experienced one or more incidents of interference over the past five years. The number of incidents totaled at least 435." The US Oversight Committee held a hearing on January 30 regarding political interference in the work of government climate change scientists. In preparation for the hearing, Chairman Waxman and Ranking Member Davis requested documents from the Council on Environmental Quality related to allegations that officials edited scientific reports and took other actions to minimize the significance of climate change. Read more here, here and here  |
