june 2007

26-06-2007
UK: British Insurers advice on climate change adaptation
 The Association of British Insurers (ABI) presented a new publication "Adapting to our Changing Climate: A Manifesto for business, government and the public" with recommendation how the UK can adapt to climate change.
Their main message is:
Insurers will work with the Government, the wider business community and customers to ensure that Britain is prepared for climate change.
Together, by 2011, we should:
  • Take action that will reduce emissions and manage the impacts of climate on our economy and communities
  • Put public and private sector investment into delivering greater resilience
  • Improve our understanding of those climate risks where there is still greatest uncertainty
  • Secure a world beating expertise in climate risk management, safeguarding and enhancing the UK’s international competitiveness.
 
 
Click here for the manifesto, and here for the link to ABI flooding site


25-06-2007
"Worst credible floods" in the North Sea coastal region
Within the scope of the Interreg project Chain of Safety, ‘Worst Credible Flood’ scenarios are defined. The scenarios present the threatened areas of a ‘worst credible flood’ in the North Sea Region. A ‘worst credible flood’ is a flood, which occurs during a very extreme, however still possible situation.
 
Storm surges represent a major natural hazard in the North Sea region, with around 40,000 km² of low-lying land at coastal flood risk in the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Denmark and the UK. 
If during a major storm the flood defence measures cannot resist the pressure of a large storm, large areas are at risk to flooding.
Since flooding disasters and their effects do not stop at local, regional or even national borders, transnational cooperation in contingency planning is very important.
 
 I     SE England (NE storm) 
 II    SE England, Belgium, SW Holland (N storm)
III    W Holland (NW storm)
IV  N Holland and NW Germany (N storm)
V    NW Germany and SW Denmark (W storm)
 
To make good preparation on flood disasters, it is important to get insight in the potential scale of a coastal flooding. The figure above presents the threatened areas of a ‘worst credible flood’ in the North Sea Region. A ‘worst credible flood’ is a flood, which occurs during a very extreme, however still possible situation.
Contingency planners can base their preparations on the ‘worst credible flood’ scenarios.
 
In the framework of the Dutch ‘National Strategy for High Water and Storm Surge Crisis’ flood defence experts have developed the ‘worst credible flood’ scenarios and translated them to zones in which different areas maybe flooded simultaneously (figure 2). The scenarios are based on situation that exceed the level of protection. 
In this case only area I, II and IV are relevant. These storm surges occur with wind speeds of 12 Bft or more. The duration of storm surges depends on the tide and the duration of the storm. In these scenarios the duration is set on 45 hours. The average prediction time is 15 hours.
 
 
Based on these insights and on historical date of storms occurred in the past, a qualitative extrapolation into the North Sea has been made (figure 3). It has been assumed that the location of simultaneous flooded areas along the North Sea depends on the wind pattern direction of the storm: NW storms threaten the Dutch coast, N storms threaten the German bight and North Holland and when a N storm runs more to the southern part of the North Sea, Southeast England, Belgium, South West Holland are threatened. NE storms threaten the Southeast coast of the United Kingdom and a W storm will threaten the coast of the Germany and Denmark.
 
 
Figure 2 shows areas affected by some mayor storm surges flooding in the past. The first figure shows the qualitative extrapolation into the North Sea region.
 
Here you can find the memo on these scenarios. For more information on the Dutch scenarios, click here.
 


21-06-2007
NL: Climate proofing in government plans

The Netherlands need to be made climate-proof and ' water ' need be imbedded better in the spatial planning. This according to ' point 26 ' in the policy programme 2006-2011 that has been presented on the 14th of June by the fourth cabinet Balkenende. First of all research needs to be done which will give a long-term overview of the vulnerability of the Dutch infrastructure. State Secretary of the Ministry of Water, Tineke Huizinga, spent a hundred days visiting several locations to see how water is of vital importance for every day life. Huizinga is expected to launch a water strategy document in September in which these experiences will be incorporated.

Important task for water management
There are three points in the policy programme that are related to water. Point 26 is about making The Netherlands climate-proof and water needs to have a key role in spatial planning activities. For the Dutch this is one of the biggest spatial tasks and of vital importance for the water management. The government has initiated a long-term study to anticipate on the increase of the vulnerability of The Netherlands as a result of the expected climate change. This study will provide criteria on how to adapt The Netherlands to climate change. To decide on location and spatial planning of major projects a separate framework of criteria will be prepared. These frameworks will be based on the climate change scenario of the Dutch meteorological institute.

Export of knowledge
The abovementioned task for the water management is expected to generate new knowledge and innovative approaches. Water will be linked to nature, infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and the reorganisation of urban areas. These new knowledge and experiences can then be exported to other densely populated delta areas. Therefore water will not only be an expense.

Priority given to coastal defences
The first priority of the government is to ensure that dikes and coastal defences meet the legal requirements. Secondly the acceptable risks on floods and the relevant water security policy plans need to be taken into consideration. Finally the government would like to produce an integrated long-term plan for the Dutch coast. An amount of 375 millions euro has been allocated to water policy plans for the coming four years.

Water policy not so popular at the Dutch House of Representatives.
On the 19th of June the Dutch House of Representatives debated no less than thirteen hours on the new policy programme. During that debate there was not a single Member of Parliament who took the opportunity to speak about water related policy. Only the Prime Minister Balkenende shortly stated that if the Dutch would start developing green technologies and smart solutions related to water issues, it would create an extra impulse to share the knowledge worldwide.

The complete text of the three points – 26, 27 and 28 – of the Dutch policy programme 2007-2011 can be found here (in Dutch only).



Source: www.waterforum.net



21-06-2007
UK: Uncertainties future safety Thames Barrier

The cost of protecting London and the south-east from flooding will be at least £4bn as sea levels rise and the south-east coast sinks over the next century, a report for the Environment Agency has warned.

Experts have recognised that the Thames Barrier should be able to guard against the possibility of a major flood until 2030, but say that billions need to be spent on raising 300km of other defences to protect the capital - and even more than that if the sea level rises still further.

At worst, the cost of a major new barrier would be 'in excess of £20bn', says the report by the Thames Estuary 2100 project team.
The report - which goes further than previous warnings - is the latest example of huge bills which face British taxpayers and people around the world to protect themselves from the expected impacts of climate change.

'The more we curb emissions [blamed for global warming], therefore, the less investment will be required in extreme measures to combat the increasing risk from sea-level rise and climate change,' adds the report.

Dave Wardle, the EA's area manager for the Thames region, said the report showed that the Thames Barrier, opened in 1982, had been well designed and maintained, but that the agency would need more money from government in future.

The EA is currently budgeting £200m over 12 years on extra defences, and a Government Foresight report in 2004, 'Future Flooding', called for investment in flood defence and coastal erosion to rise by £10m-£30m a year to limit the average annual damage of flooding to £2bn a year by 2080. Damage is currently £1bn a year, said the EA.

'All research shows more investment in flood defences is needed to take into account the increasing vulnerability of communities facing the unavoidable impacts of climate change,' added Wardle.

The report also said the Environment Agency's Making Space for Water strategy, which aims to find land which can store floodwater, from parks to car parks, could extend the life of the Thames Barrier by 50 to 80 years beyond 2030.

The report's findings are based on the government estimate that the average rise in sea level by 2100 will be 0.94 metres, although it also considered higher estimates of up to 4.2 metres. About 1mm a year of the increase is due to geological changes as southern England subsides; the rest is because global warming is causing ice to melt and seawater to expand, said Professor Jim Hall of Newcastle University, who has advised the EA on flood risk in the region.

'These are pretty conservative scenarios, but London is an important place, so it's important they look at some far-out what-ifs - even if these are not the basis for the design.'

More information can be found here.

Source: The Observer



11-06-2007
Safecoast workshop 'Strategic investments in the coastal zone'

Within the scope of the project Safecoast Rijkswaterstaat DWW and the Coastal Division and the Flanders Hydraulic Research of the Ministry of the Flemish Community has organised a workshop on strategic investments in coastal flood risk management.

 

During the morning session several speakers gave a nice overview on different possibilities and method, like technical studies, cost-benefit analysis and ICZM, how be more 'future prove'  in the coastal zone.
In the afternoon, an interactive session was held on integrated solution to protect the Belgian coast from the sea on the long term, by using the methodology of the project RESPONSE.

The report of the workshop can be downloaded here. One of the main outcomes is that cost-benefit analysis together with technical studies has to be taken in to be part of the process to get a good integrated plan.



08-06-2007
NL: play some educational games
If you like to sharpen your knowledge in a non-boring way, project Safecoast has developed some interactive educational games you can play.
Four games dealing with flood safety and climate change can be found below. Click on the images below to start playing.































 





























01-06-2007
NL: dissertation on loss of life estimation in flood risk assessments
Last week, the dissertation from Bas Jonkman was released as result of his Ph D work at the Delft University of Technology. His thesis is a scientific approach to the estimation of casualties in flood risk assessments.

Quantitative risk analysis is generally used to quantify the risks associated with accidents in a technical system. The resulting risk estimates, expressing the combination of probabilities and consequences of a set of possible accidents, provide the input for risk evaluation and decision-making.
One of the most important types of consequences of accidents concerns the loss of human life. In general, there is limited insight in the magnitude of loss of life caused by accidents, and no general methodology that can be used to estimate loss of life for different event types is available.

In particular in the field of flood risk assessment, limited insight exists in the number of fatalities that can result from the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences.

In the first part of this thesis a general approach for loss of life estimation and risk quantification is proposed. The second part focuses on the estimation of loss of life caused by floods.

The thesis can be downloaded here (6 mb) or in Safecoast's national files page (click on the Netherlands).