Action 1: Climate change and spatial development scenarios

In spatial planning for coastal zones it is sensible to consider
changes relating to behaviour of the sea. Climate change is expected to have an impact on this behaviour by means of sea level rise and the prospect of more, extremer storms. As the risk of flooding is a product of both the probability of a flood event and its potential consequences, it is necessary to study both carefully. Within project Safecoast, Rijkswaterstaat RIKZ [NL] is responsible for gathering existing information and capitalizing knowledge on this theme.

So far it is not possible to accurately predict future climate changes. It is therefore common to use climate change and other development scenarios in the planning process. For instance, climate change scenarios can contain expected values for sea level rise, wave heights for storm frequencies and duration. Researchers normally do this on the basis of the output of climate change models. For instance, in the most recent and leading research effort of IPCC (2007) a large range of expected sea level rise with a maximum of 0,48m in 2100 is presented in the graph below. See also the headline about the recently released climate change scenarios by the Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

Policy makers need to translate the scientific scenarios into values considered in coastal planning processes and coastal managers need the input for the design of flood protection measures. As project Safecoast has found, different countries deal with this differently. See the table below for the different assumptions for sea level rise in the North Sea countries.


Download the Safecoast inventory report of climate change scenarios in the North Sea region countries (2006) here:

[update: In October 2006, the UK has provided an supplementary note to the policy scenarios that are used in the UK: download the brief overview of these changes here, that have been incorporated in the table above]


Moreover, when dealing with risks, it is essential to incorporate the development of future consequences of flooding, such as future planning, urbanisation and economic investments. By doing this, more insight is gained in either the urgency for strengthening flood protection schemes or, for instance, to make a case for risk avoiding planning in low lying areas. In this action Rijkswaterstaat / RIKZ makes an assessment of the existing scenarios in the North Sea region countries. Not only to gather the most usable facts and figures, but also to put these into a transnational context and to feed into the other actions of project Safecoast:

Download the Safecoast sketch of spatial planning scenarios for the North Sea region countries (2006) here:

See also the Example Case Study (in dutch): Elevation map and land use scenario 2030 for dike ring 14, (Central Holland),  The Netherlands. If both pressures from both sea and land are increasing in most parts of the North Sea lowlands, how do we think about or act on this increased risk? In Safecoast, an integrated coastal flood risk assessment for the North Sea Region was performed

It has added value to better understand how different neighbouring countries - from their own particular context - plan for the future and try to enhance existing strategies. For this, Safecoast has performed a quick scan of climate change adaptation options in the North Sea countries, with a focus on strategies for coastal flooding:

Download the Safecoast quick scan climate change adaptation with a focus on coastal defence policies (2006) here:


  



Rest assured that sea level rise is not a new phenomenon, nor was an occasional flooding from the sea in the past thousands of years. In fact, most of the existing lowlands are a direct result of the slow sedimentary build up by rivers and the redistribution of sands and clays by the sea. In the past centuries the North sea countries have been successful, left aside an occasional disaster, in implementing large scale coastal defence measures where needed. A gradual transition from dwelling mounds, land drainage and reclamation, dikes, to storm surge barriers.  However, what is quite new in the past five decades, is the explosion of human presence in low-lying deltas of the world, such as the North Sea lowlands.